The Director of the Future Planet Research Centre- David
Hunter Tow, predicts that by 2030 the equivalent of a global PreCognition machine
will be in operation with everyone a Person
of Interest as portrayed in The Minority Report film.
The state of surveillance and reconnaissance technology and
its multiple applications is now
evolving at warp speed creating unprecedented Future Shock to civilisation’s
social fabric.Surveillance is already big business- very big business and is likely to continue to expand exponentially into the foreseeable future, attracting the good, the bad and the ugliest elements of society.
The problem is that without careful controls, the runaway consequences of such a pervasive and
intrusive phenomenom is likely to be catastrophic for humanity.
The main technological and social components of the global surveillance trendline are already emerging;
woven together into a dense matrix from which there will be no easy escape.
They include-
This massive information network is already evolving into
something beyond society’s capacity to control- the means of generating and accessing
all civilisation’s knowledge content and application. It now connects over 3
billion humans and in the near future trillions of computing devices, machines
and sensors. It already allows a dense
interchange of information, expertise and ideas relating to the sciences, arts
and social experience that support all aspects of human existence on planet
earth.
All knowledge advances, including not just basic data, but
the algorithms, processes and techniques used to processs information, are
being funnelled at hyperspeed into its heart, like a giant black hole
swallowing the energy of billions of suns.
And emerging from the other side just like a white hole is a
whole new universe- the promise of a cornucopia of untold intellectual riches
and wisdom. Giant science and social observatories are now being constructed-
models containing trillions of variables to assist in forecasting the future;
reducing the risks that could wipe out our world in the blink of an eye- catastrophic
economic, environmental or existential collapse.
The Web itself is rapidly moving to the next level- becoming
more intelligent and self-determining; adapting and learning with the
computational intelligence of billions of human and cyberagent minds; rapidly
taking on the characteristics of a living superorganism.
Once encapsulated, content
can be mixed and matched, processed and recycled ad infinitum just like matter,
until it finally emerges in a form that in
the best scenario will benefit humanity and allow it survive and achieve
its potential in the future.
But there is an alter ego- a dark side to the Internet/Web.
In order to achieve this magical transformation, this perpetual knowledge
generator at the heart and soul of our civilisation, it must also become a superb surveillance
machine, with intelligent sensors to act as its eyes and ears- everywhere.
The following categories of sensors are now commonly used to support the Internet/Web
Embedded Sensors-
Sensors are incredibly important, because without them to
monitor the processes and systems of our planet, including our own bodies, our
wonderful chocolate factory would quickly die. It can only operate as a supersystem if it is
fed a continuous diet of up to date, relevant and reliable information.
By linking to a variety of intelligent sensors, some
incorporating the distributed ability to
process signals using artificial intelligence, the Web can capture the raw
material it requires to weave our social matrix and is already doing so in
increasing volumes, as its appetite for problem solving expands.
Sensors therefore must therefore also evolve to become smarter- becoming more like
multi-component systems, which can now be constructed in a vast variety of
forms. For example- as force and field detectors embedded in the limbs of
autonomous robots, capable of working on complex tasks with humans; as clouds of
tiny artificial insects or smart dust that can automatically cooperate to
monitor deadly environments without risking human lives; as nano-biosensors small
enough to enter and navigate human cells to keep us alive; as the
instrumentation of unmanned drones capable of locking on to a target and
activating a kill switch against human beings; and as road location catseyes,
continuously communicating with driverless
cars to avoid accidents and gridlock.
But rapidly changing climate and social change triggered by
global warming will be the main driver for this technology in the future, requiring intelligent sensors embedded in
every form of natural and man made ecosystem; allowing for constant adaptation and
maintenance, utilising closed feedback loops linked to the Intelligent Web for
its solutions.
Such smart sensor networks are already operating in every
sphere of work and social activity including-
Maintaining engineered Infrastructure- embedded in roads,
bridges, dams, pipelines, grids and power stations.
Monitoring ecosystems- natural systems such as-forests, rivers, water, soil, air and energy resources providing feedback
to regulatory authorities to protect their integrity and survival.
Coordinating manufacturing and logistical facilities- factories, plants, container centres, warehouses, ports. airports,
railways, traffic systems etc to efficiently manage the manufacture and delivery
of products and services.
Personalising Health - advances in smart phones and mobile technology equipped with
biosensors have opened up unlimited
opportunities to monitor and support an individual’s health needs on an
unprecedented personal basis- delivering just in time interventions linked to
the latest diagnostic and treatment algorithms on the Web. Also using
nanosensors to track disease pathways at the cellular and molecular level.
Managing Disasters and Conflict - protecting the security of those living in war and conflict zones – including
law enforcement precincts in cities and urban areas; using a range of sensors to protect and monitor the
security of communities and public assets. These are increasingly delivered by
smartphones as well as pervasive CCTV cameras, mobile robots and in the future small
agile drones.
Ssensor systems, involving high resolution cameras and
global positioning devices attached to space based telescopes, aircraft,
balloons, unmanned drones, explorers and
probes of all types are now widely used to detect the electromagnetic spectrum
of the planet’s resources in most wavelengths- optical, infrared, ultra violet,
radio etc. The results are used to feed data to web based or smartphone apps
for analysis covering- weather forecasts,
disaster interventions, animal distribution, ecosystem health, 24 hour communications
and video news footage..
.Military / Spy networks - satellites track the world’s most
secret military and government installations and test sites using software that
enables surveillance of the remotest areas on the planet. This information is also
used for research, using images from Google Earth satellite maps to replace
traditional archaeological methods; by Governments to monitor border integrity
and NGOs to safeguard wildlife against poaching in protected areas. Powerful
probes and remote autonomous vehicle landers are increasingly used in space
exploration to obtain fly by views of
planets, moons and asteroids and in the future mining options.
Drones / UAVs – these are likely to become common in the
future, sharing airspace with piloted aircraft. They are currently used for
surveillance spying and kill missions, but in the future will be used for
reconaissance by most governments, NGOs and private corporations.
They can monitor a range of information sources, vastly
reducing the operational risk in conflict areas; allowing surveillance by sensors
that can record full motion video, infrared patterns. radio and mobile phone
signals. They can also refuel on remote short airstrips, extending effective
air range by thousands of kilometres.
Nextgen drones will be autonomous and smaller, able to
navigate and eventually make target decisions, controlled by complex algorithms and Web feeds; eliminating
human operators from the decision loop entirely. They will be used by every type of
organisation - criminal networks, private security businesses, NGOs and social
activist groups, providing a variety of logistical, security, news gathering
and research services.
But many legal, ethical and regulatory issues remain to be
resolved before UAVs will be able to operate in lockstep with human controlled
vehicles. There is now fierce pushback by the community against another method
of individual privacy invasion.
Intelligent Devices
With the imminent arrival of the Internet of Everything the
focus will be on every object in relation to surveillance - machines, electronic
devices and systems that can communicate with other machines as well as human users
will be the first objects of interest to
be caught in the net. These will include complex systems such as supersmart
phones and robots as well as everyday home and office devices such as cameras, TVs, printers, video recorders,
toys, game consoles, microwave ovens,
toasters, fridges etc, all equipped with forms of embedded sensors and
actuators including chipped product and ID codes. Eventually trillions of such active objects including life
forms – plants, animals and humans- will
be linked to the Internet through a variety of communication protocols
including including DNA sequences and brain interfaces.
Robots of all types will be pervasive in the home, workplace and industrial areas including- humanoids,
capable of intereacting and cooperating with humans in work areas such as
retail stores and factories or performing home support services- initially cleaning,
food delivery, health and companion support. They will eventually be capable of more sophisticated
decision-making and autonomous operation equal to humans in every activity and
finally acting in surveillance / supervisory mode.
Humans are also expanding their remit in the surveillance
game in the form of citizen reporters, scientists and observers, using
smartphones to gather information from their local environment, then feeding it
through social network media. Social
networks such as Facebook and Twitter already provide feedback on the latest breaking
news across the globe, particularly in entertainment, crime and disaster areas,
often creating ad hoc networks to provide alternative coverage when standard
communication fails as in Haiti- offering
critical on the ground suppport and impact assessment as first responders.
Phone cameras have already proved the single most important
surveillance tool available to communities in times of crisis; also a tool for democracy that has already
proved crucial in capturing proof of abuse during the Arab Spring. Citizen
reporters, and community activists equipped with such devices constantly feed the
Web with realtime events, capturing evidence of illegal activities and
promoting events of public interest through crowdsourcing. The social media
therefore provides a significant back channel in disseminating realtime
information around the globe like a Mexican wave, as well as signalling
emerging trends such as disease epidemics and political developments.
In addition, activist NGOs, whistleblowers and mass
movements- Greenpeace, Wikileaks and Occupy all contribute to this channel, providing
background monitoring and surveillance of big business and Government corruption; a form of ethical
surveillance crucial to a democracy.
Cyber espionage is now rife around the world. Serious cyber
attacks are a daily occurrence particularly between nations such as China, US, Russia, Britain, Iran and Israel,
with the intent of covert acquisition of national secrets, Intellectual
property, financial assets and personal information.
But cyber espionage is also a form of intrusive
surveillance.
Current cyber malware such as Stuxnet, Flame, Duqu and
Miniduke are all primarily surveillance and reconnaissance weapons capable of performing
spy missions as well as crippling vital target infrastructure. This routinely involves copying critical screen images, websites,
emails, documentation and network traffic in general.- performing extensive
data mining, copying, transmitting and deleting files for espionage purposes.
The Pentagon’s Plan x is a good example of the exploding
surveillance syndrome now overtaking society. It aims to create a new surveillance and operations system to map
the digital battlefield of cyberspace and
define a playbook for deploying cyberweapons. It will provide a realtime
graphical rendering of this cyberworld showing ongoing operations and realtime
flows of networked data around the world like a large scale computer game. This
visualisation or surveillance model of cyberspace requires intensive reconaissance
of both friend and foe. But it is already out of date- a model more appropriate
for the sci-fi films of the nineties. It will soon be superseded by a much
bigger prescence – a multi-dimensional cognitive model in which players are linked directly to the Intelligent
Web.
The US is also assembling a vast intelligence surveillance
apparatus to collect information about its own citizens as well as those overseas
actors perceived as terrorist risks, integrating the resources of the
Department of Homeland Security, military , local police departments and FBI.
In the near future this will be expanded to encompass the whole range of US and
overseas allied security agencies. This machine will collate information about
thousands of US citizens and residents many of whom have not been accused of
any wrongdoing, to assist the FBI initially in its ongoing eternal and surreal
war against home grown terrorism.
According to news reports there are now almost 4000 federal,
state and local organisations working on domestic counterterrorism projects, following
the 2001 attacks. Obviously this is getting out of hand, making it virtually
impossible to achieve any realistic goal for achieving a coordinated system.
There are also a number of legislative bills relating to
Internet surveillance awaiting ratification including – SOPA, PIPA and CISPA.
The first two speak to copyright
protection of content on the web threatening to close down any remotely implicated
site, which opponents say infringes on
the right to privacy and freedom of access to the Web; while the third relates to the monitoring of private citizen
information or spying on the general public, in the name of investigating
hypothetical cyber threats and ensuring the security of networks against cyber
attack.
All three have met with fierce opposition from advocacy
groups such as the American Civil Liberties Union and the Electronic Frontier Foundation, as
ignoring the legal rights of supposed infringers and excessively intrusive and
draconian.
Future Shock
While the benefits of the future Interne/Web are enormous in
terms of greater knowledge leading to a higher quality of life and a safer
existence for humanity, there are concurrent significant downsides which will quickly
escalate, potentially leading to a loss
of control of humanity over its destiny.
The existential risk is that transition to such an always on
and pervasive entity as a global
surveillance machine, monitoring
a large proportion of the planet’s
natural, engineered and cultural environment, could lead to a big brother society in which
everyone is a person of interest.
The major disruptions noted as already emerging, relate to
the inevitable erosion of citizen privacy
and equitable access to the the Internet in the name of security, with
new US laws such as SOPA and CISPA due
to be enacted. These purportably aim to provide greater protection for
intellectual property and personal rights but at the same time have the
potential to erode democratic rights.
In other words the beneficial potential of the Internet/Web
is at risk of being subverted, emerging instead as a vast spying or
surveillance machine.
But this is just the beginning of a slippery slope in human
rights attrition.
The surveillance mechanisms outlined will inevitably lead to
much greater personal freedoms restriction, which in turn will increase
pressure for some form of predictive capacity to choke off dissent. This is
likely to escalate no matter what legal safeguards are adopted.
In the paranoid world of the spy/surveillance agencies, networks
will become impossibly entangled – much more so than in the current
geopolitical/security maze. If there are 4000 domestic agencies in the US
currently involved in covert surveillance, how many more are there
internationally and how many will there be involved in the surveillance game
when the cyberespionage paranoia really explodes?
Who is friend or foe when every nation and major
organisation is spying on every other?
As mentioned, prediction/forecasting models are already in
widespread use – and so they should be in a world threatened by global warming
and economic collapse. Projects such as
the FuturICT Social Observatory, although not gaining EU funding in the
immediate future will continue, monitoring vast amounts of information, searching
for trends and elusive signals to save the planet.
It is good science when forecasting is applied to reduce risks
to our civiliisation. But when such mechanisms abuse power by tightening
control over populations it is the beginning of an unravelling of democratic
standards.
Autocratic and fascist states throughout history have
applied such techniques to their people, punishing political enemies and
dissidents in the process. The current surveillance technologies amplify this
potential for misuse a thousandfold, exploiting the Web as civilisation’s
greatest asset for potential benefit, turning it instead into a quasi Surveillance/Precog
machine with the capacity to predict an individual’s movements and actions.
Governments have lost the ability to solve this problem.
Even if there is the will it has become too complex.
The Future is at a tipping point- and the outcome does not
look promising.
